由于篇幅限制，我所提供的大量引用来源并不十分全面。我的目的有二：这些注释既可以作为研究本书的线索，也可以为有兴趣开始星期五晚上（或者星期六早晨）研究的读者提供详细的入门指导。书中绝大部分引文来自我与受访者的对话。如果不是来自对话，引文的出处我会直接在文中标明，或者对应书中页码而列在此处。受限于版面，为了尽可能多地列出参考文献，下列书籍和论文我均没有列出副标题。
引言 费德勒VS.老虎·伍兹1 就能在父亲的手掌上站稳了：G. Smith, “The Chosen One,” Sports Illustrated, December 23, 1996. （此外，厄尔·伍兹还提供了一张老虎·伍兹保持平衡的照片，出处请见以下。）
1 “当时教他如何推杆真是太难了”：有关老虎·伍兹童年的原始资料可参见： E. Woods (with P. McDaniel, foreword by Tiger Woods), Training a Tiger: Raising a Winner in Golf and Life (New York: Harper Paperbacks, 1997).
2 讲授心理战术：J. Benedict and A. Keteyian, Tiger Woods (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2018).
2 “他比他们任何一个都更有话题性”：Smith, “The Chosen One.”
3 “我就会更感兴趣”；“我们没有计划A”：R. Jacob, “Ace of Grace,” Financial Times, January 13, 2006, online ed.
3 “男孩便会难以忍受这种状态”；“他惯会惹我生气”：R. Stauffer, The Roger Federer Story: Quest for Perfection (Chicago: New Chapter Press, 2007 ［Kindle ebook］).
3 “抽离”；“如果父母稍稍督促他一点儿”；“别作弊就行”；“Mehr CDs”：J. L. Wertheim, Strokes of Genius (New York: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2009 ［Kindle ebook］).
4 “战无不胜的感觉”；“他的故事和我的完全不同”：Stauffer, The Roger Federer Story.
5 通过对三十位小提琴演奏者的观察：K. A. Ericsson, R. T. Krampe, and C. Tesch-Römer, “The Role of Deliberate Practice in the Acquisition of Expert Performance,” Psychological Review 100, no. 3 (1993): 363—406.
6 “我们起码得先确定”：A. Gawande, The Checklist Manifesto (New York: Metropolitan Books, 2010).
7 “慢热型”：如想详细了解英国如何转变人才培训渠道，可参见：O. Slot, The Talent Lab (London: Ebury Press, 2017).
8 进行专业化的技术练习：来自一系列体育和国家的研究实例——包括引言中引用的那些——记录了抽样和延迟专业化的趋势，包括（这里的第一篇论文是本书图1和图2的数据来源）: K. Moesch et al., “Late Specialization: The Key to Success in Centimeters, Grams, or Seconds (CGS) Sports,” Scandinavian Journal of Medicine and Science in Sports 21, no. 6 (2011): e282—90; K. Moesch et al., “Making It to the Top in Team Sports: Start Later, Intensify, and Be Determined!,” Talent Development and Excellence 5, no. 2 (2013): 85—100; M. Hornig et al., “Practice and Play in the Development of German Top-Level Professional Football Players,” European Journal of Sport Science 16, no. 1 (2016): 96—105 (epub ahead of print, 2014); A. Güllich et al., “Sport Activities Differentiating Match-Play Improvement in Elite Youth Footballers—A 2-Year Longitudinal Study,” Journal of Sports Sciences 35, no. 3 (2017): 207—15 (epub ahead of print, 2016); A. Güllich, “International Medallists’ and Non-medallists’ Developmental Sport Activities—A Matched-Pairs Analysis,” Journal of Sports Sciences 35, no. 23 (2017): 2281—88; J. Gulbin et al., “Patterns of Performance Development in Elite Athletes,” European Journal of Sport Science 13, no. 6 (2013): 605—14; J. Gulbin et al., “A Look Through the Rear View Mirror: Developmental Experiences and Insights of High Performance Athletes,” Talent Development and Excellence 2, no. 2 (2010): 149—64; M. W. Bridge and M. R. Toms, “The Specialising or Sampling Debate,” Journal of Sports Sciences 31, no. 1 (2013): 87—96; P. S. Buckley et al., “Early Single-Sport Specialization,” Orthopaedic Journal of Sports Medicine 5, no. 7 (2017): 2325967117703944; J. P. Difiori et al., “Debunking Early Single Sports Specialization and Reshaping the Youth Sport Experience: An NBA Perspective,” British Journal of Sports Medicine 51, no. 3(2017): 142—43; J. Baker et al., “ Sport-Specific Practice and the Development of Expert Decision-Making in Team Ball Sports,” Journal of Applied Sport Psychology 15, no. 1 (2003): 12—25; R. Carlson, “The Socialization of Elite Tennis Players in Sweden: An Analysis of the Players’ Backgrounds and Development,” Sociology of Sport Journal 5 (1988): 241—56; G. M. Hill, “Youth Sport Participation of Professional Baseball Players,” Sociology of Sport Journal 10 (1993): 107—14.; F. G. Mendes et al., “Retrospective Analysis of Accumulated Structured Practice: A Bayesian Multilevel Analysis of Elite Brazilian Volleyball Players,” High Ability Studies (advance online publication, 2018); S. Black et al., “Pediatric Sports Specialization in Elite Ice Hockey Players,” Sports Health: A Multidisciplinary Approach (advance online publication, 2018).［赢得2018年世界杯的法国在几十年前对其青年发展进行了彻底改革，强调无组织的比赛，而不是正规的比赛，并为后起之秀腾出上升空间。法国顶级青年足球运动员的正式比赛次数可能只有美国同龄人的一半。当国家发展系统中的法国孩子确实有正式的比赛时，教练被禁止在比赛的大部分时间里讲话，这样他们就不能对年轻球员进行微观管理。“球员们没有遥控器（控制）……就像帮助设计青年系统的卢多维奇·德布鲁（Ludovic Debru）在2018年阿斯彭研究所（Aspen Institute）的项目游戏峰会上所说的那样，让他们玩吧。］
9 “在一个体育专业化的时代”：J. Brewer, “Ester Ledecka Is the Greatest Olympian at the Games, Even If She Doesn’t Know It,” Washington Post, February 24, 2018, online ed.
9 “我同时在练习很多体育项目”：J. Drenna, “Vasyl Lomachenko: ‘All Fighters Think About Their Legacy. I’m No Different,’ ” Guardian, April 16, 2018, online ed.
12 “年轻人就是更聪明”：M. Coker, “Startup Advice for Entrepreneurs from Y Combinator,” VentureBeat, March 26, 2007.
12 人在五十岁时创立一家一鸣惊人的高科技公司：P. Azoulay et al., “Age and High-Growth Entrepreneurship,” NBER Working Paper No. 24489 (2018).
13 “没有人能想象到，银行内部的运作如同一个个谷仓一般”：G. Tett, The Silo Effect: The Peril of Expertise and the Promise of Breaking Down Barriers (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2015 ［Kindle ebook］).
13 “心脏病患者如果在全国性心脏病学大会期间被收治”：A. B. Jena et al., “Mortality and Treatment Patterns Among Patients Hospitalized with Acute Cardiovascular Conditions During Dates of National Cardiology Meetings,” JAMA Internal Medicine 175, no. 2 (2015): 237—44. See also: R.F. Redberg, “Cardiac Patient Outcomes during National Cardiology Meetings,” JAMA Internal Medicine 175, no.2 (2015): 245.
第1章3 把这个计划付诸实施：波尔加姐妹的生活在许多书籍和文章中都有记载。关于本章的细节，除了对苏珊·波尔加的采访外，最有用的来源包括：Y. Aviram (director), The Polgar Variant (Israel: Lama Films, 2014); S. Polgar with P. Truong, Breaking Through: How the Polgar Sisters Changed the Game of Chess (London: Everyman Chess, 2005); C. Flora, “The Grandmaster Experiment,” Psychology Today, July 2005, online ed.; P. Voosen, “Bringing Up Genius: Is Every Healthy Child a Potential Prodigy?,” Chronicle of Higher Education, November 8, 2015, online ed.; C. Forbes, The Polgar Sisters (New York: Henry Holt, 1992).
3 “遇到了一个有趣的人”：Polgar with Truong, Breaking Through.
4 “灰色的凡夫俗子”：People staff, “Nurtured to Be Geniuses, Hungary’s Polgar Sisters Put Winning Moves on Chess Masters,” People, May 4, 1987.
4 “国际象棋的结果非常客观”：L. Myers, “Trained to Be a Genius, Girl, 16, Wallops Chess Champ Spassky for $110,000,” Chicago Tribune, February 18, 1993.
5 “绝对组”：Aviram, The Polgar Variant.
6 癌症和艾滋病：W. Hartston, “A Man with a Talent for Creating Genius,” Independent, January 12, 1993.
8 “完全没有联系”：“Daniel Kahneman—Biographical,” Nobelprize .org, Nobel Media AB 2014. 2015年12月，我有幸在午餐时与卡尼曼讨论了他的生活和工作。更多细节可以参见他的书《思考，快与慢》Thinking, Fast and Slow (New York: Farrar, Straus & Giroux, 2011).
8 让他“印象深刻”：给卡尼曼留下深刻印象的其他相关的书包括：Paul E. Meehl, Clinical Versus Statistical Prediction (Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 1954). 米尔启发了大量研究，表明专家往往凭借经验获得信心，而不是技能。对其中一些工作的出色评论有：C. F. Camerer and E. J. Johnson, “The Process-Performance Paradox in Expert Judgment: How Can Experts Know So Much and Predict So Badly?,” in Toward a General Theory of Expertise, ed. K. A. Ericsson and Jacqui Smith (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991).
8 2009年，卡尼曼和克莱恩：D. Kahneman and G. Klein, “Conditions for Intuitive Expertise: A Failure to Disagree,” American Psychologist 64, no. 6 (2009): 515—26.
8 “友好型”学习环境：Robin Hogarth’s fantastic book on learning environments is Educating Intuition (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2001).
9 “还要可怕的病毒携带者”：L. Thomas, The Youngest Science (New York: Penguin, 1995), 22.
10 1997……终极之战：Kasparov was on the cover of the May 5, 1997, Newsweek, with the headline, “The Brain’s Last Stand.”
10 “现在你手机里的免费国际象棋应用程序”：卡斯帕罗夫和他的副助手米格·格林加德非常友好地回答了我的问题。更多信息来自卡斯帕罗夫2017年6月5日在乔治城大学的一次演讲，以及卡斯帕罗夫和格林加德的书《深度思考》Deep Thinking (New York: PublicAffairs, 2017).
10 “你就可以走得更远”：S. Polgar and P. Truong, Chess Tactics for Champions (New York: Random House Puzzles & Games, 2006), x.
11 “人类创造力的重要性比以往更加显著”；“我在战术计算上的优势”：Kasparov and Greengard, Deep Thinking.
11 自由式国际象棋：有关人机国际象棋合作关系的精彩讨论，请参见：T. Cowen, Average is Over (New York: Dutton, 2013).
12 他的队友尼尔森·埃尔南德斯：埃尔南德斯友好地进行了长时间的问答交流，向我解释了自由式国际象棋的细微差别，并为我提供了关于锦标赛的文件。他估计威廉姆斯在传统国际象棋中的Elo评分将在1800分左右。
12 2007年，国家地理频道：这个节目叫作《我的非凡大脑》（My Brilliant Brain）。
13 第一个实验发生在20世纪40年代：A. D. de Groot, Thought and Choice in Chess (Amsterdam: Amsterdam University Press, 2008).
13 增加了一些难度：Chase and Simon’s chunking theory: W. G. Chase and H. A. Simon, “Perception in Chess,” Cognitive Psychology 4 (1973): 55—81.
15 如果不在十二岁之前开始严格的训练：F. Gobet and G. Campitelli, “The Role of Domain-Specific Practice, Handedness, and Starting Age in Chess,” Developmental Psychology 43 (2007): 159—72. 有关个人进步的不同速率，请参见： G. Campitelli and F. Gobet, “The Role of Practice in Chess: A Longitudinal Study,” Learning and Individual Differences 18, no. 4 (2007): 446—58.
15 特雷费特（Darold Treffert）对于“专才”的研究：特雷费特与我分享了他自己文献库中关于学者的视频。他的《孤岛天才》一书(London: Jessica Kingsley Publishers, 2012)很好地记述了他的研究。
16 “我听到的东西太不现实了”：A. Ockelford, “Another Exceptional Musical Memory,” in Music and the Mind, ed. I. Deliège, and J. W. Davidson (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2011). 其他关于无调音乐的文献包括：L. K. Miller, Musical Savants (Hove, East Sussex: Psychology Press, 1989); B. Hermelin et al., “Intelligence and Musical Improvisation,” Psychological Medicine 19 (1989): 447—57.
16 对艺术类的专家进行类似测试时——给他们快速看一些图片：N. O’Connor and B. Hermelin, “Visual and Graphic Abilities of the Idiot-Savant Artist,” Psychological Medicine 17 (1987): 79—90. (Treffert has helped replace the term “idiot-savant” with “savant syndrome.”) 还可参见：E. Winner, Gifted Children: Myths and Realities (New York: BasicBooks, 1996), ch. 5.
17 阿尔法元的程序员自豪地宣称：D. Silver et al., “Mastering Chess and Shogi by Self-Play with a General Reinforcement Learning Algorithm,” arXiv (2017): 1712.01815.
17 “在特别专业化的世界里”： 除了对加里·马库斯的采访外，我还参考了他2017年6月7日在日内瓦“AI for Good”全球峰会上演讲的视频，以及他的几篇论文和散文：“Deep Learning: A Critical Appraisal,” arXiv: 1801.00631; “In Defense of Skepticism About Deep Learning,” Medium, January 14, 2018; “Innateness, AlphaZero, and Artificial Intelligence,” arXiv: 1801.05667.
18 IBM的人工智能代表“沃森”：要平衡地看待沃森在医疗保健领域面临的挑战——从一位批评人士称其为“笑话”，到其他人认为它与最初的炒作相去甚远，但它的存在确实有价值，请参见：D. H. Freedman, “A Reality Check for IBM’s AI Ambitions,” MIT Technology Review, June 27, 2017, online ed.
18 “在《危险边缘！》获胜和治愈所有癌症的区别”：这位肿瘤学家是维奈·普拉萨德医生（Dr. Vinay Prasad）。他在一次采访中对我说了这句话，并在推特上分享了这一点。
18 权威学术杂志《自然》（Nature）刊载了一篇报道：J. Ginsberg et al., “Detecting Influenza Epidemics Using Search Engine Query Data,” Nature 457 (2009): 1012—14.
18 病例数的两倍：D. Butler, “When Google Got Flu Wrong,” Nature 494 (2013): 155—56; D. Lazer et al., “The Parable of Google Flu: Traps in Big Data Analysis,” Science 343 (2014): 1203—5.
19 “他们工作的本质”：C. Argyris, “Teaching Smart People How to Learn,” Harvard Business Review, May–June 1991.
19 施瓦茨的论文副标题：B. Schwartz, “Reinforcement-Induced Behavioral Stereotypy: How Not to Teach People to Discover Rules,” Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 111, no. 1 (1982):23—59.
21 “变革者”：E. Winner, “Child Prodigies and Adult Genius: A Weak Link,” in The Wiley Handbook of Genius, ed. D. K. Simonton (Malden, MA: John Wiley & Sons, 2014).
21 会计师和桥牌选手：除了卡尼曼和克莱恩的“对抗性协作”论文和霍格斯的教育直觉之外，还有一个有价值的参考来源是：J. Shanteau, “Competence in Experts: The Role of Task Characteristics,” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 53 (1992): 252—62.
21 “稳定的统计学规律”：Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow.
21 在一项关于桥牌的研究中：P. A. Frensch and R. J. Sternberg, “Expertise and Intelligent Thinking: When Is It Worse to Know Better?” in Advances in the Psychology of Human Intelligence, vol. 5, ed. R. J. Sternberg (New York: Psychology Press, 1989).
21 经验丰富的会计师；“认知壁垒”；“把一只脚踏出你的世界”：E. Dane, “Reconsidering the Trade-Off Between Expertise and Flexibility,” Academy of Management Review 35, no. 4 (2010): 579—603. 有关专家灵活性和顽固性的一般性讨论，请参见：P. J. Feltovich et al., “Issues of Expert Flexibility in Contexts Characterized by Complexity and Change,” in Expertise in Context, ed. P. J. Feltovich et al. (Cambridge, MA: AAAI Press/MIT Press, 1997); and F. Gobet, Understanding Expertise (Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 2016).
21 诺贝尔奖获得者……至少……：R. Root-Bernstein et al., “Arts Foster Scientific Success: Avocations of Nobel, National Academy, Royal Society and Sigma Xi Members,” Journal of Psychology of Science and Technology 1, no. 2 (2008): 51—63; R. Root-Bernstein et al., “Correlations Between Avocations, Scientific Style, Work Habits, and Professional Impact of Scientists,” Creativity Research Journal 8, no. 2 (1995): 115—37.
21 “对于不了解这一点的人来说”：S. Ramón y Cajal, Precepts and Counsels on Scientific Investigation (Mountain View, CA: Pacific Press Publishing Association, 1951).
22 那些对自身领域缺乏创造性贡献的人：A. Rothenberg, A Flight from Wonder: An Investigation of Scientific Creativity (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2015).
22 “而不会沉溺于一个狭隘的话题”：D. K. Simonton, “Creativity and Expertise: Creators Are Not Equivalent to Domain-Specific Experts!,” in The Science of Expertise, ed. D. Hambrick et al. (New York: Routledge, 2017 ［Kindle ebook］).
22 “当我们在设计”：史蒂夫·乔布斯2005年在斯坦福大学的毕业演讲：https://news.stanford.edu/2005/06/14/jobs-061505.
22 “没有其他人同时对这两个领域都熟悉”：J. Horgan, “Claude Shannon: Tinkerer, Prankster, and Father of Information Theory,” IEEE Spectrum 29, no. 4 (1992): 72—75. For more depth on Shannon, see J. Soni and R. Goodman, A Mind at Play (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2017).
23 “职业渠道”；“在八车道的高速公路上开车”：C. J. Connolly, “Transition Expertise: Cognitive Factors and Developmental Processes That Contribute to Repeated Successful Career Transitions Amongst Elite Athletes, Musicians and Business People” (PhD thesis, Brunel University, 2011).
第2章27 一份30年前的报告：R. D. Tuddenham, “Soldier Intelligence in World Wars I and II,” American Psychologist 3, no. 2 (1948): 54—56.
28 如果火星人在地球着陆：J. R. Flynn, Does Your Family Make You Smarter? (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2016), 85.
28 “从摇篮一直保持到坟墓”：J. R. Flynn, What Is Intelligence? (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009).
28 弗林把自己的发现公开发表：J. R. Flynn, “The Mean IQ of Americans: Massive Gains 1932 to 1978,” Psychological Bulletin 95, no. 1 (1984): 29—51; J. R. Flynn, “Massive IQ Gains in 14 Nations,” Psychological Bulletin 101, no. 2 (1987): 171—91. 有关弗林效应的优秀入门读物，请参见：I. J. Deary, Intelligence: A Very Short Introduction (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001).
29 当评估学校里学到的知识：除了对弗林的采访外，他的书也很有帮助——特别是《我们变聪明了吗？》中长达数百页的附录(Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2012).
29 两者都是白天与黑夜的分界线：M. C. Fox and A. L. Mitchum, “A Knowledge-Based Theory of Rising Scores on ‘Culture-Free’ Tests,” Journal of Experimental Psychology 142, no. 3 (2013): 979—1000.
29 当一组爱沙尼亚研究人员：O. Must et al., “Predicting the Flynn Effect Through Word Abstractness: Results from the National Intelligence Tests Support Flynn’s Explanation,” Intelligence 57 (2016): 7—14. 我第一次看到这些成果是在俄罗斯圣彼得堡，在2016年国际情报研究学会上。大会邀请我前往发表一年一度的康斯坦斯·霍尔登纪念演说。经过四次签证申请才成功后，我到达了。这场活动充满了激烈但平民化的辩论，包括关于弗林效应的辩论，这是一个很好的背景参考资料。
29 “瑞文标准推理测验的测试结果有了巨大进步”：J. R. Flynn, What Is Intelligence?
29—30 即使是在……国家：E. Dutton et al., “The Negative Flynn Effect,” Intelligence 59 (2016): 163—69. And see Flynn’s Are We Getting Smarter? on, for example, trends in Sudan.
30 亚历山大·鲁利亚：鲁利亚的书是这一部分的主要参考来源——《认知发展：其文化和社会基础》Cognitive Development: Its Cultural and Social Foundations (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1976).
31 他学会了当地的语言：E. D. Homskaya, Alexander Romanovich Luria: A Scientific Biography (New York: Springer, 2001).
32 “教育”：Flynn’s Does Your Family Make You Smarter? and chap. 22 of R. J. Sternberg and S. B. Kaufman, eds., The Cambridge Handbook of Intelligence (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2011).
33 只见树木，不见森林：在不同语境下对“见树”现象的深入描述可在乌塔·弗里斯（U. Frith）《自闭症：解开谜团》（Autism: Explaining the Enigma）“弱中心连贯性”一节中找到 (Malden, MA: Wiley-Blackwell, 2003).
33 克佩勒人：S. Scribner, “Developmental Aspects of Categorized Recall in a West African Society,” Cognitive Psychology 6 (1974): 475—94. 有关扩展鲁利亚发现的更多信息，请参见：M. Cole and S. Scribner, Culture and Thought (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1974).
34 “百分比”这个词：我通过谷歌N元语法查看器搜索“百分比”，另见：J. B. Michel et al., “Quantitative Analysis of Culture Using Millions of Digitized Books,” Science 331 (2011): 176—82.
34 他们在瑞文标准推理测验中表现得很好：Flynn, Does Your Family Make You Smarter?
35 提供内心的平静：S. Arbesman, Overcomplicated (New York: Portfolio, 2017), 158—60.
35 认知灵活性：C. Schooler, “Environmental Complexity and the Flynn Effect,” in The Rising Curve, ed. U. Neisser (Washington, DC: American Psychological Association, 1998). And see: A. Inkeles and D. H. Smith, Becoming Modern: Individual Change in Six Developing Countries (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1974).
35 “历史学家在以世纪为单位审视人类历史时都不会忽视这样一个事实”：S. Pinker, The Better Angels of our Nature (New York: Penguin, 2011).
35 弗林效应在女性身上的体现就比男性要慢：Flynn, Are We Getting Smarter?.
37 “在大学里取得好成绩”：Flynn, How to Improve Your Mind (Malden, MA: Wiley-Blackwell, 2012). 弗林热心地向我提供了测试和答案。
38 经济学教授也能够：R. P. Larrick et al., “Teaching the Use of Cost-Benefit Reasoning in Everyday Life,” Psychological Science 1, no. 6 (1990): 362—70; R. P. Larrick et al., “Who Uses the Cost-Benefit Rules of Choice?,” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 56 (1993): 331—47. (Hogarth’s “what strikes me” quote in the footnote is from his Educating Intuition, p. 222).
38 化学专业的学生：J. F. Voss et al., “Individual Differences in the Solving of Social Science Problems,” in Individual Differences in Cognition, vol. 1, ed. R. F. Dillon and R. R. Schmeck (New York: Academic Press, 1983); D. R. Lehman et al., “The Effects of Graduate Training on Reasoning,” American Psychologist 43, no. 6 (1988): 431—43.
39 “是为学生们介绍”：“The College Core Curriculum,” University of Chicago, https:// college.uchicago.edu/academics/college-core-curriculum.
40 一分钟就被选满了：M. Nijhuis, “How to Call B.S. on Big Data: A Practical Guide,” The New Yorker, June 3, 2017, online ed.
40 “计算思维是用抽象和分解的方法来解决”：J. M. Wing, “Computational Thinking,” Communications of the ACM 49, no. 3 (2006): 33—35.
40 狭隘的职业培训：B. Caplan, The Case Against Education (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2018), 233—35.
40 职业与他们大学所学的专业无关：J. R. Abel and R. Deitz, “Agglomeration and Job Matching among College Graduates.” Regional Science and Urban Economics 51 (2015): 14—24.
40 “没有一种工具是万能的”：A. J. Toynbee, A Study of History, vol. 12, Reconsiderations (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1964), 42.
41 “每个人都忙着做研究”：Center for Evidence-Based Medicine video, “Doug Altman—Scandal of Poor Medical Research,” https://www.youtube.com/watch? v=ZwDNPldQO1Q.
42 在广义的思维策略（例如费米式思考）上稍加训练，就能收效颇佳：除了上述参考中拉里克和雷曼的研究外，还可参见：D. F. Halpern, “Teaching Critical Thinking for Transfer Across Domains,” American Psychologist 53, no. 4 (1998): 449—55; W. Chang et al., “Developing Expert Political Judgment,” Judgment and Decision Making 11, no. 5 (2016): 509—26.
42 “费米式思考是如何像热刀切黄油一样揭穿屁话的”：“Case Studies: Bullshit in the Wild,” Calling Bullshit, https://callingbullshit.org/case_studies.html.
第3章47 这一章的引用十分广泛，但碍于篇幅便做了简化处理。解说如下：简·L. 巴尔道夫-贝德斯（Jane L. Baldauf-Berdes）对奥斯佩达利的生活和音乐进行了最广泛的研究。可以在她的著作中窥见，比如《威尼斯的女音乐家》Women Musicians of Venice (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1996)，这本书在她死于癌症之前几乎没有完成。但她毕生都倾注精力去紧锣密鼓地工作。在采访过程中，我了解到她把自己的研究档案留给了杜克大学的大卫·M. 鲁宾斯坦珍本和手稿图书馆。多亏了图书馆及其工作人员，我才得以接触到48个装满简·L. 巴尔道夫-贝德斯研究材料的盒子，从原始文件的翻译和古董乐器的照片，到音乐家的花名册和与其他历史学家的通信。她对这个话题的热情简直要从那些盒子里迸发出来。我相信，这一章中来自她的研究的一些细节是第一次被公开发表的。我只希望，她会很高兴有个好奇的作家来了，并利用了它。我想把这一章献给简·L. 巴尔道夫-贝德斯。
47 一种突破传统的音乐：J. Kerman and G. Tomlinson, Listen (Brief Fourth Edition). (Boston: Bedford/St. Martin’s, 2000), chaps. 7 and 9. (Vivaldi as “undisputed champion” is from p. 117.)
48 音乐成了市民们娱乐活动的全部：这来自现代出版的同时代记述的第118—138页，整个关于18世纪欧洲音乐的章节为本书提供了一个重要的参考来源：P. A. Scholes, ed., Dr. Burney’s Musical Tours in Europe, vol. 1, An Eighteenth-Century Musical Tour in France and Italy (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1959).
48 乐团的兴盛持续了一个世纪：E. Selfridge-Field, “Music at the Pietà Before Vivaldi,” Early Music 14, no. 3 (1986): 373—86; R. Thackray, “Music Education in Eighteenth Century Italy,” reprint from Studies in Music 9 (1975): 1—7.
48 “只有在威尼斯”：E. Arnold and J. Baldauf-Berdes, Maddalena Lombardini Sirmen (Lanham, MD: Scarecrow Press, 2002).
48 在其他地方，她们表演的乐器只有男性才能演奏：J. Spitzer and N. Zaslaw, The Birth of the Orchestra (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2004), 175. Also: Scholes, ed., Burney’s Musical Tours in Europe, vol. 1, 137.
48 “她们像天使一样歌唱”：A. Pugh, Women in Music (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991).
48 “女孩们……的样子”：Hester L. Piozzi, Autobiography, Letters and Literary Remains of Mrs. Piozzi (Thrale) (Tredition Classics, 2012 ［Kindle ebook］).
48 “适合女性演奏的乐器”；“她是女性中第一个挑战伟大艺术家成就的人”：Arnold and Baldauf-Berdes, Maddalena Lombardini Sirmen.
48 “天使般的塞壬”：这是科利于1687年在Pallade Veneta杂志上的描述，这是一份（基本上被遗忘的）期刊，以书信形式发表评论。这本期刊上最好的参考来源是：E. Selfridge-Field, Pallade Veneta: Writings on Music in Venetian Society, 1650—1750 (Venice: Fondazione Levi, 1985).
48 “欧洲首屈一指的小提琴家”；无人能及：J. L. Baldauf-Berdes, “Anna Maria della Pietà: The Woman Musician of Venice Personified,” in Cecilia Reclaimed, ed. S. C. Cook and J. S. Tsou (Urbana: University of Illinois Press, 1994).
48 一份支出记录：这来自另一个值得注意的参考来源，即米奇·怀特（Micky White）编纂的一本扫描原始文件而成的书。米奇·怀特是一名英国前体育摄影师，也是维瓦尔第爱好者，她搬到了威尼斯，并以仔细研究皮耶塔里遗留的海量档案为自己的使命：M. White, Antonio Vivaldi: A Life in Documents (with CD-ROM) (Florence: Olschki, 2013), 87.
49 元老院要求：Baldauf-Berdes, “Anna Maria della Pietà.”
49 “我带着法国人对意大利音乐的偏见从巴黎而来”：卢梭是在音乐方面自学成才。他在本书中的语录出自他著名的自传体作品《忏悔录》。
50 “她的左手没有手指/她的左脚也没有脚趾”：这首匿名诗（约1740年）由巴尔道夫-贝德斯和M. 西维拉（M.Civera）从评论兼音乐家贾作托创作的《维瓦尔第》（都灵：ERI，1973）翻译而成。
50 “我的请求被批准了”：Lady Anna Riggs Miller, Letters from Italy Describing the Manners, Customs, Antiquities, Paintings, etc. of that Country in the Years MDCCLXX and MDCCLXXI, vol. 2 (Printed for E. and C. Dilly, 1777), 360—61.
51 其他不值钱的小饰品：D. E. Kaley, “The Church of the Pietà” (Venice: International Fund for Monuments, 1980).
51 一份18世纪的花名册：来自巴尔道夫-贝德斯从档案研究中收集的众多音乐家和乐器名单中的一份。这本书在杜克大学鲁宾斯坦图书馆的巴尔道夫-贝德斯藏书的第一个盒子里，共48个。
52 “忏悔心态”：Baldauf-Berdes, Women Musicians of Venice (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1996).
53 “我真的很好奇”：Scholes, ed., Burney’s Musical Tours in Europe, vol. 1.
54 “我所掌握的这些技能，人们并不希望女性能拥有”：Arnold and Baldauf-Berdes, Maddalena Lombardini Sirmen.
54 皮耶塔的佩莱格里娜：她是皮耶塔名单上的众多孤儿之一，米奇·怀特也在BBC第四频道的一部名为《维瓦尔第的女人》（Vivaldi’s Women）的影片中讨论了她。
54 “涵盖了各种音乐流派”：R. Rolland, A Musical Tour Through the Land of the Past (New York: Henry Holt, 1922).
55 “维瓦尔第拥有了资源无限的音乐实验室”：M. Pincherle, “Vivaldi and the ‘Ospitali’ of Venice,” Musical Quarterly 24, no. 3 (1938): 300—312.
55 “可能根本不会写出来”：D. Arnold. “Venetian Motets and Their Singers,” Musical Times 119 (1978): 319—21.［这里讨论的具体曲目是《欢乐颂》（Exsultate, jubilate），但作者用它来代表莫扎特的神圣音乐。］
55 拿破仑的军队：Arnold and Baldauf-Berdes, Maddalena Lombardini Sirmen.
55 没有人能认出她们是谁：在1989年为格拉迪斯·克里布尔·德尔马斯基金会撰写的一份研究建议书中，巴尔道夫-贝德斯记录了这件事和其他女子乐团被遗忘的例子。不幸的是，她打算出版的丛书是她永远无法完成的。
56 在不同阶段有过很多名字：Baldauf-Berdes, “Anna Maria della Pietà.”
56 “有能力的穷人们”：G. J. Buelow, ed., The Late Baroque Era (Basingstoke: Macmillan, 1993).
57 “如何选择乐器”：R. Lane, “How to Choose a Musical Instrument for My Child,” Upperbeachesmusic.com, January 5, 2017.
57 他确实非常不喜欢前两种乐器：M. Steinberg, “Yo-Yo Ma on Intonation, Practice, and the Role of Music in Our Lives,” Strings, September 17, 2015, online ed.
58 一项针对8~18岁音乐学习者的研究：J. A. Sloboda et al., “The Role of Practice in the Development of Performing Musicians,” British Journal of Psychology 87 (1996): 287—309. See also: G. E. McPherson et al., “Playing an Instrument,” in The Child as Musician, ed. G. E. McPherson (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2006) ［“（我发现）一些最成功的年轻学习者是那些学过一系列乐器的人。”］; and J. A. Sloboda and M. J. A. Howe, “Biographical Precursors of Musical Excellence,” Psychology of Music 19 (1991): 3—21 ［“特殊儿童在他们选择的第一种乐器上练习的次数比普通儿童少得多，但在第三种乐器上的练习次数比普通儿童多得多。”］
58—59 “自己真正想学习的乐器和实际演奏的乐器并不一致”：S. A. O’Neill, “Developing a Young Musician’s Growth Mindset,” in Music and the Mind, ed. I. Deliège and J. W. Davidson (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2011).
59 “这看上去很明晰了”：Sloboda and Howe, “Biographical Precursors of Musical Excellence.”
60 又有一项实验：A. Ivaldi, “Routes to Adolescent Musical Expertise,” in Music and the Mind, ed. Deliège and Davidson.
62 “尽管现在越来越多的狂热爱好者”：P. Gorner, “Cecchini’s Guitar Truly Classical,” Chicago Tribune, July 13, 1968.［斯图兹·特克尔（Studs Terkel）在演出前一天采访了切基尼。关于音乐的精彩对话可以参见：http://jackcecchini.com/Interviews.html。］
62 “我和音乐之间没有任何联结”：T. Teachout, Duke: A Life of Duke Ellington (New York: Gotham Books, 2013).
62 美国最优秀的作曲家：Kerman and Tomlinson, Listen, 394.
63 “约翰尼什么乐器都会”L. Flanagan, Moonlight in Vermont: The Official Biography of Johnny Smith (Anaheim Hills, CA: Centerstream, 2015).
64 “我的钢琴老师当然很内行”：F. M. Hall, It’s About Time: The Dave Brubeck Story. (Fayetteville: University of Arkansas Press, 1996).
65 “用一把抽出来的刀”；“我怀疑”：M. Dregni, Django: The Life and Music of a Gypsy Legend (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2004 ［Kindle ebook］). 另外两个参考来源提供了关于姜戈生平的特别重要的细节：C. Delaunay, Django Reinhardt (New York: Da Capo, 1961) ［在封底，《爵士乐的制作》（The Making of Jazz）一书的作者詹姆斯·林肯·科利尔（James Lincoln Collier）认为姜戈是“毫无疑问，唯一最重要的吉他手”］；还有一期《吉他演奏者》杂志（Guitar Player，1976年11月）专刊《姜戈》，专门讲述与他在一起的传奇音乐家们的经历。
66 创造力也格外爆发了：5张CD集“Django Reinhardt-Musette to Maestro 1928-1937：a Guitar Genius of a Guitar Genius”(JSP Records, 2010)包括姜戈受伤前后的录音。
66 吉米·亨德里克斯始终珍藏着姜戈的专辑：西雅图流行文化博物馆高级馆长雅各布·麦克默里（Jacob McMurray）用博物馆的永久收藏品证实了这一点。
67 一段色调阴沉的视频：“Django Reinhardt Clip Performing Live (1945),” YouTube, www.youtube.com/watch? v=aZ308aOOX04. ［优兔网站的这段视频日期不正确。这段视频摘自1938年的短片《爵士乐》（Jazz ‘Hot’）。］
67 “一种潜移默化”：（和其他柏利纳的引言）出自：P. F. Berliner, Thinking in Jazz (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1994).
68 “这几乎就像是大脑把自我批评的功能关闭了”：C. Kalb, “Who Is a Genius?,” National Geographic, May 2017.
68 “好吧，我也不识谱”：Guitar Player, November 1976.
69 “与音乐学校的教育完全对立的概念”：Dregni, Django.
69 “我根本不会即兴演奏”：A. Midgette, “Concerto on the Fly: Can Classical Musicians Learn to Improvise,” Washington Post, June 15, 2012, online ed.
69 “我的自我学习经历可以说就是来回擦啊蹭啊”：以及用小提琴与兄弟姐妹打闹的细节可参见：S. Suzuki, Nurtured by Love, trans. W. Suzuki (Alfred Music, 1993 ［Kindle ebook］).
70 家规：J. S. Dacey, “Discriminating Characteristics of the Families of Highly Creative Adolescents,” Journal of Creative Behavior 23, no. 4 (1989): 263—71.（格兰特在以下内容中引用了这项研究：“How to Raise a Creative Child. Step One: Back Off,” New York Times, Jan. 30, 2016.）
第4章73 “准备好了吗？假设你们将要到现场去看一场费城老鹰队的比赛”：课堂场景来自“国际数学与科学研究趋势”（TIMSS）的视频、文字记录和分析。具体的视频是“M-US2编写变量表达式”。
74 “我刚才所举的3美元热狗的例子”：老师说错了话，她说了“两个”。为了清晰起见，正文已更正。
76 “使用过程”；“建立联系”：J. Hiebert et al., “Teaching Mathematics in Seven Countries,” National Center for Education Statistics, 2003, chap. 5.
78 bansho：E.R.A. Kuehnert et al. “Bansho: Visually Sequencing Mathematical Ideas,” Teaching Children Mathematics 24, no. 6 (2018): 362—69.
78 “学生们无法把数学看作一个系统”：L. E. Richland et al., “Teaching the Conceptual Structure of Mathematics,” Educational Psychology 47, no. 3 (2012): 189—203.
80 在布朗克斯南部测试了六年级学生的词汇学习情况：N. Kornell and J. Metcalfe, “The Effects of Memory Retrieval, Errors and Feedback on Learning,” in Applying Science of Learning in Education, V.A. Benassi et al., ed. (Society for the Teaching of Psychology, 2014); J. Metcalfe and N. Kornell, “Principles of Cognitive Science in Education,” Psychonomic Bulletin and Review 14, no. 2 (2007): 225—29.
80 “矫枉过正现象”：T. S. Eich et al., “The Hypercorrection Effect in Younger and Older Adults,” Neuropsychology, Development and Cognition. Section B, Aging, Neuropsychology and Cognition 20, no. 5 (2013): 511—21; J. Metcalfe et al., “Neural Correlates of People’s Hypercorrection of Their False Beliefs,” Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience 24, no. 7 (2012): 1571—83.
80 奥比隆和迈克达夫：N. Kornell and H. S. Terrace, “The Generation Effect in Monkeys,” Psychological Science 18, no. 8 (2007): 682—85.
82 “就像在生活中”：N. Kornell et al., “Retrieval Attempts Enhance Learning, but Retrieval Success (Versus Failure) Does Not Matter,” Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition 41, no. 1 (2015): 283—94.
83 西班牙语学习者：H. P. Bahrick and E. Phelps, “Retention of Spanish Vocabulary over 8 Years,” Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition 13, no. 2 (1987): 344—49.
83 艾奥瓦州的研究人员给受试者念了一组单词：L. L. Jacoby and W. H. Bartz, “Rehearsal and Transfer to LTM,” Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior 11 (1972): 561—65.
83 “这种对知识即时且高水平的掌握让学习者产生误解”：N. J. Cepeda et al., “Spacing Effects in Learning,” Psychological Science 19, no. 11 (2008): 1095—1102.
84 2007年，美国教育部发表了一份报告：H. Pashler et al., “Organizing Instruction and Study to Improve Student Learning,” National Center for Education Research, 2007.
84 一项非常特殊的研究：S. E. Carrell and J. E. West, “Does Professor Quality Matter?,” Journal of Political Economy 118, no. 3 (2010): 409—32.
86 在意大利的博科尼大学也有类似的实验：M. Braga et al., “Evaluating Students’ Evaluations of Professors,” Economics of Education Review 41 (2014): 71—88.
86 “合意难度”：R. A. Bjork, “Institutional Impediments to Effective Training,” in Learning, Remembering, Believing: Enhancing Human Performance, ed. D. Druckman and R. A. Bjork (Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 1994), 295—306.
86 “纵观整个学习过程，最重要的一点是”：C. M. Clark and R. A. Bjork, “When and Why Introducing Difficulties and Errors Can Enhance Instruction,” in Applying the Science of Learning in Education, ed. V. A. Benassi et al. (Society for the Teaching of Psychology, 2014 ［ebook］).
86—87 在接受调查时声称：C. Rampell, “Actually, Public Education is Getting Better, Not Worse,” Washington Post, September 18, 2014.
87 学校并没有变得更糟；“越来越多的高薪工作”：G. Duncan and R. J. Murnane, Restoring Opportunity (Cambridge, MA: Harvard Education Press, 2014 ［Kindle ebook］).
89 另一项研究选择的是大学数学问题：D. Rohrer and K. Taylor, “The Shuffling of Mathematics Problems Improves Learning,” Instructional Science 35 (2007): 481—98.
89 从辨别蝴蝶类型的研究者，到诊断心理障碍的医生：M. S. Birnbaum et al., “Why Interleaving Enhances Inductive Learning,” Memory and Cognition 41 (2013): 392—402.
89 一项针对海军防空模拟练习的研究：C. L. Holladay and M.A. Quiñones, “Practice Variability and Transfer of Training,” Journal of Applied Psychology 88, no. 6 (2003): 1094—1103.
89 在科内尔和比约克关于交叉练习的一项研究中，80%的学生：N. Kornell and R. A. Bjork, “Learning Concepts and Categories: Is Spacing the ‘Enemy of Induction’?,” Psychological Science 19, no. 6 (2008): 585—92.
89 用左手横跨15个琴键：M. Bangert et al., “When Less of the Same Is More: Benefits of Variability of Practice in Pianists,” Proceedings of the International Symposium on Performance Science (2013): 117—22.
90 奥尼尔应该停止在罚球线上练习罚球：比约克在丹尼尔·科伊尔（Daniel Coyle）的《一万小时天才理论》The Talent Code (New York: Bantam, 2009)一书中提出了这个建议。
90 这也是专家解决问题的标志：See, for example: M.T.H. Chi et al., “Categorization and Representation of Physics Problems by Experts and Novices,” Cognitive Science 5, no. 2 (1981): 121—52; and J. F. Voss et al., “Individual Differences in the Solving of Social Science Problems,” in Individual Differences in Cognition, vol. 1, ed. R. F. Dillon and R. R. Schmeck (New York: Academic Press, 1983).
90 研究了67个旨在提升学业表现的儿童早教项目：D. Bailey et al., “Persistence and Fadeout in Impacts of Child and Adolescent Interventions,” Journal of Research on Educational Effectiveness 10, no. 1 (2017): 7—39.
91 学会走路：S. G. Paris, “Reinterpreting the Development of Reading Skills,” Reading Research Quarterly 40, no. 2 (2005): 184—202.
第5章95 乔尔丹诺·布鲁诺：A. A. Martinez, “Giordano Bruno and the Heresy of Many Worlds,” Annals of Science 73, no. 4 (2016): 345—74.
95 约翰尼斯·开普勒最初也认可并继承了：关于开普勒继承的世界观和他的变革性类比，提供了极好的背景资料的来源有：D. Gentner et al., “Analogical Reasoning and Conceptual Change: A Case Study of Johannes Kepler,” Journal of the Learning Sciences 6, no. 1 (1997): 3—40; D. Gentner, “Analogy in Scientific Discovery: The Case of Johannes Kepler,” in Model-Based Reasoning: Science, Technology, Values, ed. L. Magnani and N. J. Nersessian (New York: Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers, 2002), 21—39; D. Gentner et al., “Analogy and Creativity in the Works of Johannes Kepler,” in Creative Thought: An Investigation of Conceptual Structures and Processes, ed. T. B. Ward et al. (Washington, DC: American Psychological Association, 1997).
96 也许众多的天体就像一块块磁铁：D. Gentner and A. B. Markman, “Structure Mapping in Analogy and Similarity,” American Psychologist 52, no. 1 (1997): 45—56. 开普勒也阅读了有关磁力现象的新作品：A. Caswell, “Lectures on Astronomy,” Smithsonian Lectures on Astronomy, 1858 (British Museum collection).
97 “月球可以管得了地球上的水”：J. Gleick, Isaac Newton (New York: Vintage, 2007).
98 在当时还没有“引力”这一概念；“物理学家们”：A. Koestler, The Sleepwalkers: A History of Man’s Changing Vision of the Universe (New York: Penguin Classics, 2017).
98 “我特别热爱类比这种方法”：B. Vickers, “Analogy Versus Identity,” in: Occult and Scientific Mentalities in the Renaissance, ed. B. Vickers (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1984).
99 “远距离运动”：Gentner et al., “Analogy and Creativity in the Works of Johannes Kepler.”; E. McMullin, “The Origins of the Field Concept in Physics,” Physics in Perspective 4, no. 1 (2002): 13—39.
100 假设你是一名医生：M. L. Gick and K. J. Holyoak, “Analogical Problem Solving,” Cognitive Psychology 12 (1980): 306—55.
101-102 曾经，一位将军；一个小镇上……消防队队长；“参与的受试者可能会以为”；“定义不明”的问题：M. L. Gick and K. J. Holyoak, “Schema Induction and Analogical Transfer,” Cognitive Psychology 15 (1983): 1—38.
103 卡尼曼曾经亲历过这种“内部视角”的危险性：卡尼曼的故事体现在了他的书《思考，快与慢》(New York: Farrar, Straus & Giroux, 2011)中。有了内部视角和外部观角的背景之后，也体现在另一本著作《胆怯的选择和大胆的预测》（Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts）中，Management Science 39, no. 1 (1993): 17—31。
104 大型私募股权公司的投资人参与了实验：D. Lovallo, C. Clarke, and C. Camerer, “Robust Analogizing and the Outside View,” Strategic Management Journal 33, no. 5 (2012): 496—512.
105 那匹马的身体素质：M. J. Mauboussin, Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition (Boston: Harvard Business Review Press, 2009).
105 一个人考量的内部细节越多：L. Van Boven and N. Epley, “The Unpacking Effect in Evaluative Judgments: When the Whole Is Less Than the Sum of Its Parts,” Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 39 (2003): 263—69.
105 “死于自然原因”：A. Tversky and D. J. Koehler, “Support Theory,” Psychological Review 101, no. 4 (1994): 547—67.
105 全世界大约90%的大型基础设施建设工程：B. Flyvbjerg et al., “What Causes Cost Overrun in Transport Infrastructure Projects?” Transport Reviews 24, no. 1 (2004): 3—18.
105 可能被大幅低估了：B. Flyvbjerg, “Curbing Optimism Bias and Strategic Misrepresentation in Planning,” European Planning Studies 16, no. 1 (2008): 3—21. The £1 billion price tag: S. Brocklehurst, “Going off the Rails,” BBC Scotland, May 30, 2014, online ed.
106 研究人员又把目光投向了电影业：Lovallo, Clarke, and Camerer, “Robust Analogizing and the Outside View.”
106 网飞公司……也得到了类似的结论：T. Vanderbilt, “The Science Behind the Netflix Algorithms That Decide What You’ll Watch Next,” Wired.com, August 7, 2013; and C. Burger, “Personalized Recommendations at Netflix,” Tastehit. com, February 23, 2016.
107 洛瓦洛和杜宾给部分学生：F. Dubin and D. Lovallo, “The Use and Misuse of Analogies in Business,” Working Paper (Sydney: University of Sydney, 2008).
108 2001年，波士顿咨询公司：关于波士顿咨询公司“展品”的推动力，简要讨论如下：D. Gray, “A Gallery of Metaphors,” Harvard Business Review, September 2003.
109 根特纳和她的同事们……这项“模糊分类任务”：B. M. Rottman et al., “Causal Systems Categories: Differences in Novice and Expert Categorization of Causal Phenomena,” Cognitive Science 36 (2012): 919—32.
110 在有史以来被引用最多的一项：M. T. H. Chi et al., “Categorization and Representation of Physics Problems by Experts and Novices,” Cognitive Science 5, no. 2 (1981): 121—52.
110 “对我来说”：Koestler, The Sleepwalkers.
111 丹麦花费了整个国家财政预算的1%：N. Morvillo, Science and Religion: Understanding the Issues (Malden, MA: Wiley-Blackwell, 2010).
111 “如果我一定要忽略这8弧分”：Koestler, The Sleepwalkers.
112 当邓巴开始这项工作的时候：关于邓巴工作的一个很有意义的背景资料是：K. Dunbar, “What Scientific Thinking Reveals About the Nature of Cognition,” in Designing for Science, ed. K. Crowley et al. (Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, 2001).
114 “当实验室的所有成员”：K. Dunbar, “How Scientists Really Reason,” in The Nature of Insight, ed. R. J. Sternberg and J. E. Davidson (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1995), 365—95.
第6章117 男孩的母亲醉心于音乐和美术：凡·高生平的细节来自几个主要来源，包括写给凡·高的翻译信件。在凡·高博物馆、惠更斯荷兰历史研究所和文森特·凡·高信件网站（vangoghletters.org）上共计900多封信（也就是每一封幸存的信件）。如果没有另一个令人难以置信的参考来源，我不会知道应该读哪封信：史蒂芬·奈菲和格雷戈里·怀特·史密斯的著作《凡·高：生活》Van Gogh: The Life (New York: Random House, 2011)奈菲和史密斯采取了非同寻常的举措，在vangoghbiography y.com/notes.php上创建了一个可搜索的资源数据库。这非常有帮助。另外两个有帮助的书面资料来源是：N. Denekamp et al., The Vincent van Gogh Atlas (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press and the Van Gogh Museum, 2016); and J. Hulsker, The Complete Van Gogh (New York: Harrison House/H. N. Abrams, 1984).最后，再为大家附上两个展览：芝加哥艺术学院的《凡·高的卧室》“Van Gogh’s Bedrooms” (2016)，以及俄罗斯圣彼得堡隐士博物馆的印象派和后印象派藏品。
118 “他其实谁也没记住”：Naifeh and Smith, Van Gogh: The Life.
118 “绝对一个也没见过”：来自凡·高写给弟弟西奥的信，1884年6月。
118—119 “停止随心所欲”；“更快乐、更冷静”；“赶紧继续”：Naifeh and Smith, Van Gogh: The Life.
119 “我就必须坐起来”：Van Gogh letter to brother Theo, September 1877.
119 “地狱”：Émile Zola, Germinal, trans. R. N. MacKenzie (Indianapolis: Hackett Publishing, 2011).
120 “笼子的栏杆”：来自凡·高写给弟弟西奥的信，1880年6月。
120 “我正一边画画一边给你写信”：来自凡·高写给弟弟西奥的信，1880年8月。
120 《基础绘画指南》：Naifeh and Smith, Van Gogh: The Life.
121 “你不是艺术家”；“你开始得太晚了”：Van Gogh letter to brother Theo, March 1882 (trans. Johanna van Gogh-Bonger).
121 “他有了一个巨大的发现”：Naifeh and Smith, Van Gogh: The Life.
121 “事实证明，绘画的难度比我想象的要小”：来自凡·高写给弟弟西奥的信，1882年8月。凡·高那天画的那幅画是“暴风雨天气中的施维宁根海滩”。这幅画于2002年从凡·高博物馆被盗，但十多年后又被找回。
123 一篇评论欣喜若狂地：The review, by G.-Albert Aurier, was titled “Les isolés: Vincent van Gogh.”
124 荷兰的国民预期寿命：确切的数字是39.84，来自在线出版《我们世界的数据》Our World in Data (ourworldindata.org)。
124 三十五岁的高更：The Great Masters (London: Quantum Publishing, 2003).
124 “史诗级的失败”：J. K. Rowling, text of speech, “The Fringe Benefits of Failure, and the Importance of Imagination,” Harvard Gazette, June 5, 2008, online ed.
125 未来的诺贝尔经济学奖得主西奥多·舒尔茨：T. W. Schultz, “Resources for Higher Education,” Journal of Political Economy 76, no. 3 (1968): 327—47.
125 有一个自然存在的实验：O. Malamud, “Discovering One’s Talent: Learning from Academic Specialization,” Industrial and Labor Relations 64, no. 2 (2011): 375—405.
126 很快就能赶上：O. Malamud, “Breadth Versus Depth: The Timing of Specialization in Higher Education,” Labour 24, no. 4 (2010): 359—90.
126 他们犯的错误也更多：D. Lederman, “When to Specialize?,” Inside Higher Ed, November 25, 2009.
126 “匹配质量得到提升”：Malamud, “Discovering One’s Talent.”
127 经济学家史蒂芬·列维特……巧妙地利用了自己的读者群：S. D. Levitt, “Heads or Tails: The Impact of a Coin Toss on Major Life Decisions and Subsequent Happiness,” NBER Working Paper No. 22487 (2016).
127 “愿意放弃”：Levitt, in the September 30, 2011, Freakonomics Radio program, “The Upside of Quitting.”
128 “老师们倾向于离开……学校”：C. K. Jackson, “Match Quality, Worker Productivity, and Worker Mobility: Direct Evidence from Teachers,” Review of Economics and Statistics 95, no. 4 (2013): 1096—1116.
128 心理学家安琪拉·达克沃斯曾经做过一个关于“放弃”的著名实验：A. L. Duckworth et al., “Grit: Perseverance and Passion for Long-Term Goals,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 92, no. 6 (2007): 1087—1101. （整个新生班级由1223名新生学员组成，所以达克沃斯几乎调查了每一个人。）表3很好地总结了西点军校、斯克里普斯全国拼写大赛、常春藤盟校学生的成绩和成人教育程度中粗暴程度造成的差异。此外，达克沃思在她的书《恒毅力：激情和毅力的力量》Grit: The Power of Passion and Perseverance (New York: Scribner, 2016)中详细介绍了她的工作。
129 达克沃斯了解了“候选人整体评分系统”：一篇有关恒毅力和“候选人整体评分系统”的参考来源是：D. Engber, “Is ‘Grit’ Really the Key to Success?,” Slate, May 8, 2016.
130 “我担心，自己无意中支持了”：A. Duckworth, “Don’t Grade Schools on Grit,” New York Times, March 26, 2016.
131 “必然限制了”：Duckworth et al., “Grit: Perseverance and Passion for Long-Term Goals.”
131 1308名一年级生中有32人：M. Randall, “New Cadets March Back from ‘Beast Barracks’ at West Point,” Times Herald-Record, August 8, 2016.
132 “年少无知”：R. A. Miller, “Job Matching and Occupational Choice,” Journal of Political Economy 92, no. 6 (1984): 1086—1120.
132 “那些没有勇气去放弃的任务”：S. Godin, The Dip: A Little Book That Teaches You When to Quit (and When to Stick) (New York: Portfolio, 2007 ［Kindle ebook］).
133 坚持服役满20年：G. Cheadle (Brig. Gen. USAF ［Ret.］), “Retention of USMA Graduates on Active Duty,” white paper for the USMA Association of Graduates, 2004.
133-134 2010年发表了一部专著；“教会学员离开部队的机构”：这本专著是关于军官发展和留住的六部系列的其中之一：C. Wardynski et al., “Towards a U.S. Army Officer Corps Strategy for Success: Retaining Talent,” Strategic Studies Institute, 2010.
136 国防部长阿什顿·卡特访问西点军校：A. Tilghman, “At West Point, Millennial Cadets Say Rigid Military Career Tracks Are Outdated,” Military Times, March 26, 2016.
138 美国成年人整体平均分数：你可以将自己的恒毅力得分与其他成年人进行比较，网址是https://angeladuckworth.com/grit-scale/。
139 “奥林匹克运动员需要明白”：S. Cohen, “Sasha Cohen: An Olympian’s Guide to Retiring at 25,” New York Times, February 24, 2018.
139 最近，盖洛普公司调查了：Gallup’s State of the Global Workplace report, 2017.
第7章145 弗朗西斯·赫塞尔本……长大：关于赫塞尔本生活的信息来自对她的多次采访，以及她的书籍，还有其他认识她的人的佐证。她的著作《我的领导力生活》My Life in Leadership (San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 2011),是一个特别有用的资料来源，书中引用了“医生、律师、飞行员”的名言。
149 “美国的任何一家公司”：E. Edersheim, “The Woman Drucker Said Was the Best CEO in America,” Management Matters Network, April 27, 2017.
149—150 “我会选择赫塞尔本”：J. A. Byrne, “Profiting from the Nonprofits,” Business Week, March 26, 1990.
150 总统自由勋章：当比尔·克林顿总统将勋章颁发给赫塞尔本时，他幽默地要求她“上前”领奖，因为她不喜欢使用“向上”和“向下”这样的等级字眼。
153 菲尔·奈特：Good Morning America, April 26, 2016.
153 “不太会设定目标”：Phil Knight, Shoe Dog (New York: Scribner, 2016).
153 “我再也没有参与过”：达尔文生活的这些细节和其他细节可以在查尔斯·达尔文自传The Autobiography of Charles Darwin中找到。带注释的免费版本可以通过网站darwin-online.org.uk获得。
153 推荐到了贝格尔号（HMS Beagle）上免费工作：剑桥大学达尔文通信项目(www.darwinproject.ac.uk)公开提供了大量信息，比如J. S. 亨斯洛教授（J. S. Henslow）对达尔文的邀请函（1831年8月24日）。
154 “无疾而终”；“这简直是荒唐”；“如果我爷爷给过我父亲其他选择”：The Autobiography of Charles Darwin.
154 “我从来不用想自己的工作是否值得”：Bio at www.michaelcrichton.com.
154 “历史终结错觉”：J. Quoidbach, D. T. Gilbert, and T. D. Wilson, “The End of History Illusion,” Science 339, no. 6115 (2013): 96—98.
155 92个研究，结果显示：B.W. Roberts et al., “Patterns of Mean-Level Change in Personality Traits Across the Life Course,” Psychological Bulletin 132, no. 1 (2006): 1-25. See also: B. W. Roberts and D. Mroczek, “Personality Trait Change in Adulthood,” Current Directions in Psychological Science 17, no. 1 (2009): 31—35. For a nice (and free) review of personality research intended for a broad audience, see M. B. Donnellan, “Personality Stability and Change,” in Noba Textbook Series: Psychology, ed. R. Biswas-Diener and E. Diener (Champaign, IL: DEF Publishers, 2018), nobaproject.com.
156 心理学家沃尔特·米歇尔和他的研究团队：W. Mischel, The Marshmallow Test (New York: Little, Brown, 2014 ［Kindle ebook］).
157 正田佑一反复强调过：佑一利用获得研究奖的机会再次表明了这一点。2015年6月2日，华盛顿大学在宣布该奖项的新闻稿中提出这一点：“虽然对这一荣誉感到高兴，但佑一对媒体多年来针对这项研究的报道表示担忧，并对父母自己做这项研究来预测孩子命运的错误观念表示担忧。”他补充说：“我们发现的关系远不完美。而且还有很大的变革空间。”
157 “如果-那么”特征；“这些研究成果主要体现了”：Y. Shoda et al., eds., Persons in Context: Building a Science of the Individual (New York: Guilford Press, 2007 ［Kindle ebook］).
158 “如果你今天开车时既认真又神经质”：T. Rose, The End of Average: How We Succeed in a World That Values Sameness (New York: HarperOne, 2016 ［Kindle ebook］).
159—160 伊贝拉开始了另一项研究；“我们……发现这些可能性”：H. Ibarra, Working Identity (Boston: Harvard Business Review Press, 2003).
160 转向新职业可以完全避免任何痛苦：P. Capell, “Taking the Painless Path to a New Career,” Wall Street Journal Europe, January 2, 2002.
161 保罗·格雷厄姆……高中毕业演讲：“What You’ll Wish You’d Known,” www.paulgraham.com/hs.html.
163 艺术史学家威廉·华莱士证明了：W. Wallace, “Michelangelo: Separating Theory and Practice,” in Imitation, Representation and Printing in the Italian Renaissance, ed. R. Eriksen and M. Malmanger (Pisa and Rome: Fabrizio Serra Editore, 2009).
163 他越来越讨厌画画；这些诗也只完成了一半：The Complete Poems of Michelangelo, trans. J. F. Nims (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1998): poem 5 (painting); p. 8 (half unfinished).
164 “但是我弹不好那些乐器”：“Haruki Murakami, The Art of Fiction No. 182.” The Paris Review, 170 (2004).
164 “一记漂亮又干脆的二垒安打”：H. Murakami, “The Moment I Became a Novelist,” Literary Hub, June 25, 2015.
164 “给我一个启示”：Bio at patrickrothfuss.com.
165 “我对思考数学问题不感兴趣”：《卫报》2014年8月12日对玛丽亚姆·米尔扎哈尼的采访，经克莱数学研究所许可转载。
165 “这就像是迷失在丛林中”：A. Myers and B. Carey, “Maryam Mirzakhani, Stanford Mathematician and Fields Medal Winner, Dies,” Stanford News, July 15, 2007.
165 “我对这项运动的激情没有减少”：“A new beginning,” Chrissiewellington.org, March 12, 2012.
168 “一股暖流涌遍全身”：H. Finster, as told to T. Patterson, Howard Finster: Stranger from Another World (New York: Abbeville Press, 1989).
第8章173 完全被解决的占了1/3多一点：K. R. Lakhani, “InnoCentive.com (A),” HBS No. 9- 608-170, Harvard Business School Publishing, 2009. See also: S. Page, The Difference (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2008).
173 “饥饿比刀剑更加凶残”：T. Standage, An Edible History of Humanity (New York: Bloomsbury, 2009).
173 为食物保存研究设立了奖金：“Selected Innovation Prizes and Rewards Programs,” Knowledge Ecology International, KEI Research Note, 2008: 1.
174 一整只羊：J. H. Collins, The Story of Canned Foods (New York: E. P. Dutton, 1924).
174 拿破仑在滑铁卢惨败，他携带的补给品都被英军吃掉了：Standage, An Edible History of Humanity.
175 “我认为……能够帮人走出困境”：Cragin’s presentation at Collaborative Innovation: Public Sector Prizes, June 12, 2012, Washington, D.C., The Case Foundation and The Joyce Foundation.
178 “三个晚上”：J. Travis, “Science by the Masses,” Science 319, no. 5871 (2008): 1750—52.
178 “问题离解决者的专业越遥远”：C. Dean, “If You Have a Problem, Ask Everyone,” New York Times, July 22, 2008. See also: L. Moise interview with K. Lakhani, “5 Questions with Dr. Karim Lakhani,” InnoCentive Innovation Blog, Jul 25, 2008.
178 “对新的解决方案的探索”：K. R. Lakhani et al., “Open Innovation and Organizational Boundaries,” in A. Grandori, ed., Handbook of Economic Organization (Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 2013).
178 “我们的研究发现”：S. Joni, “Stop Relying on Experts for Innovation: A Conversation with Karim Lakhani,” Forbes, October 23, 2013, online ed.
179 “需要的是更有创造性的解决办法”：Kaggle Team, “Profiling Top Kagglers: Bestfitting, Currently #1 in the World,” No Free Hunch (official Kaggle blog), May 7, 2018.
179 “斯旺森是全国第一位领导图书馆专业的物理学家”：Copy of University of Chicago Office of Public Relations memo (No. 62-583) for December 17, 1962.
180 “与现存的知识总量相比，相差悬殊”：D. R. Swanson, “On the Fragmentation of Knowledge, the Connection Explosion, and Assembling Other People’s Ideas,” Bulletin of the American Society for Information Science and Technology 27, no. 3 (2005): 12—14.
180 1960年，美国国家医药图书馆：K. J. Boudreau et al., “Looking Across and Looking Beyond the Knowledge Frontier,” Management Science 62, no. 10 (2016): 2765—83.
180 “11个被忽视的联系”：D. R. Swanson, “Migraine and Magnesium: Eleven Neglected Connections,” Perspectives in Biology and Medicine 31, no. 4 (1988): 526—57.
181 “主场”：L. Moise interview with K. Lakhani, “5 Questions with Dr. Karim Lakhani.”
184 她发现了一篇论文：这篇论文是： F. Deymeer et al., “327 Emery-Dreifuss Muscular Dystrophy with Unusual Features,” Muscle and Nerve 16 (1993): 1359—65.
185 1999年，吉尔收到了一封来自意大利研究小组的邮件：该意大利研究小组很快便将他们的研究结果予以公开发表（这当然也要感谢吉尔）：G. Bonne et al., “Mutations in the Gene Encoding Lamin A/C Cause Autosomal Dominant Emery-Dreifuss Muscular Dystrophy,” Nature Genetics 21, no. 3 (1999): 285—88.
第9章193 在闭关锁国的两百年间：有关任天堂历史的几个资料特别重要：F. Gorges with I. Yamazaki, The History of Nintendo, vol. 1, 1889—1980 ( Triel-sur-Seine: Pix’N Love, 2010). F. Gorges with I. Yamazaki, The History of Nintendo, vol. 2, 1980—1991 (Triel-sur-Seine: Pix’N Love, 2012); E. Voskuil, Before Mario: The Fantastic Toys from the Video Game Giant’s Early Days (Châtillon: Omaké Books, 2014); J. Parish, Game Boy World 1989 (Norfolk, VA: CreateSpace, 2016); D. Sheff, Game Over: How Nintendo Conquered the World (New York: Vintage, 2011).
194 “反正我不会离开京都”：有关横井军平引语的来源说明，请参见第194页的脚注。
195 “雪在阳光下融化”：Gorges with Yamazaki, The History of Nintendo, vol. 2, 1980—1991.
195 “横向思考”：E. de Bono, Lateral Thinking: Creativity Step by Step (New York: HarperCollins, 2010).
197 小心翼翼地在屏幕上凸印了几百个点：横井的专利往往很简单，是发明史上的宝库。这项专利(美国4398804号)和其他专利可以在谷歌专利上找到。
199 1.187亿台：B. Edwards, “Happy 20th b-day, Game Boy,” Ars Technica, April 21, 2009.
199—200 “这种理念很难被任天堂理解”；“这是一个雪人”；“愁容惨淡”：shmuplations.com (translation), “Console Gaming Then and Now: A Fascinating 1997 Interview with Nintendo’s Legendary Gunpei Yokoi,” techspot.com, July 10, 2015.
200 “蜡烛问题”：有关更好的说明，请参见D. Pink, Drive (New York: Riverhead, 2011).
201 “横井军平的强项不在电子这方面”：摘自冈田智在《马里奥之前》（Before Mario）一书的前言。
201 “设计和界面”：IGN staff, “Okada on the Game Boy Advance,” IGN .com, Sep. 13, 2000.
201 “如果不怕被误解”：M. Kodama, Knowledge Integration Dynamics (Singapore: World Scientific): 211.
202 “只是用一种别样的方式在创新”：C. Christensen and S. C. Anthony, “What Should Sony Do Next?,” Forbes, August 1, 2007, online ed.
203 钻研细节的青蛙，也需要富有远见的鸟：F. Dyson, “Bird and Frogs,” Notices of the American Mathematical Society 56, no. 2 (2009): 212—23. （戴森可能是一只数学青蛙，但他也是一名优秀的作家。）
203 多层光学薄膜：M. F. Weber et al., “Giant Birefringent Optics in Multilayer Polymer Mirrors,” Science 287 (2000): 2451—56; and R. F. Service, “Mirror Film Is the Fairest of Them All,” Science 287 (2000): 2387—89.
204 大蓝闪蝶：R. Ahmed et al., “Morpho Butterfly-Inspired Optical Diffraction, Diffusion, and Bio-chemical Sensing,” RSC Advances 8 (2018): 27111—18.
204 “它其实天天都出现在你面前”：Ouderkirk’s talk at TEDxHHL, October 14, 2016.
206 准备去了解3M公司的发明家们：W. F. Boh, R. Evaristo, and A. Ouderkirk, “Balancing Breadth and Depth of Expertise for Innovation: A 3M Story,” Research Policy 43 (2013): 349—66.
207 “没有人告诉过我”：Ouderkirk’s talk at TEDxHHL, October 14, 2016.
208 仅艾奥瓦州就有1000多家剧院：G. D. Glenn and R. L. Poole, The Opera Houses of Iowa (Ames: Iowa State University Press, 1993). 有关这一现象的详实的讨论，请参见：R. H. Frank, Luxury Fever (New York: The Free Press, 1999), ch. 3.
208 研发投入与绩效：B. Jaruzelski et al., “Proven Paths to Innovation Success,” Strategy+ Business, winter 2014, issue 77 preprint.
210 他们分析了过去十五年的技术专利：E. Melero and N. Palomeras, “The Renaissance Man Is Not Dead! The Role of Generalists in Teams of Inventors,” Research Policy 44 (2015): 154—67.
211 漫画书：A. Taylor and H. R. Greve, “Superman or the Fantastic Four? Knowledge Combination and Experience in Innovative Teams,” Academy of Management Journal 49, no. 4 (2006): 723—40.
211 魏特汉其实操纵或编造了部分研究：C. L. Tilley, “Seducing the Innocent: Fredric Wertham and the Falsifications That Helped Condemn Comics,” Information and Culture 47, no. 4 (2012): 383-413.
213 高度专业化的外科医生……出色地完成手术：M. Maruthappu et al., “The Influence of Volume and Experience on Individual Surgical Performance: A Systematic Review,” Annals of Surgery 261, no. 4 (2015): 642—47; N. R. Sahni et al., “Surgeon Specialization and Operative Mortality in the United States: Retrospective Analysis,” BMJ 354 (2016): i3571; A. Kurmann et al., “Impact of Team Familiarity in the Operating Room on Surgical Complications,” World Journal of Surgery 38, no. 12 (2014): 3047—52; M. Maruthappu, “The Impact of Team Familiarity and Surgical Experience on Operative Efficiency,” Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine 109, no. 4 (2016): 147—53.
213 分析了大型飞行事故的数据库：“A Review of Flightcrew-Involved Major Accidents of U.S. Air Carriers, 1978 Through 1990,” National Transportation Safety Board, Safety Study NTSB/SS-94/01, 1994.
214 犹他大学教授艾比·格里芬：A. Griffin, R. L. Price, and B. Vojak, Serial Innovators: How Individuals Create and Deliver Breakthrough Innovations in Mature Firms (Stanford, CA: Stanford Business Books, 2012 ［Kindle ebook］).
214 “算是一个专业的局外人”：D. K. Simonton, Origins of Genius (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1999).
214 “我可不想在这上面花更多时间了”：H. E. Gruber, Darwin on Man: A Psychological Study of Scientific Creativity (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1981).
215 他至少有231位科学方面的笔友；种子实验：T. Veak, “Exploring Darwin’s Correspondence,” Archives of Natural History 30, no. 1 (2003): 118—38.
215 “令人困惑的混合体”：H. E. Gruber, “The Evolving Systems Approach to Creative Work,” Creativity Research Journal 1, no.1 (1988): 27—51.
216 “我的大脑里同时开着很多的应用程序”：R. Mead, “All About the Hamiltons,” The New Yorker, February. 9, 2015.
第10章219 一场赌局开始了：耶鲁大学历史学教授保罗·萨宾的著作《赌注》The Bet (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2013)提供了引人入胜的背景和分析。C·R·桑斯坦（C.R.Sunstein)在《纽约书评》上发表的《两只刺猬之战》 “The Battle of Two Hedgehogs,” New York Review of Books, December 5, 2013是一篇简短的分析文章。
219 “人口增长曲线”：P. Ehrlich, Eco-Catastrophe! (San Francisco: City Lights Books, 1969).
220 “绿色革命”：G. S. Morson and M. Schapiro, Cents and Sensibility (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2017 ［Kindle ebook］).
220 “提升了每个大陆的人均粮食供应量”：这部分和该段落其他统计数据(营养不良公民的比例；饥荒死亡率；出生率；人口增长轨迹)来自在线出版物“我们世界的数据”，该出版物由牛津大学经济学家马克斯·罗瑟(Max Roser)创立。例如，每人每天的卡路里供应量可以在以下网址找到：https://slides.our worldindata.org/hunger-and-food-provision/#/kcalcapitaday-by-world-regions-mg-png.
221 联合国预测：United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, “World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables,” Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP/248.
221 “现在，人口炸弹已经被引爆”：P. R. Ehrlich and A. H. Ehrlich, The Population Explosion (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1990).
221 后来，经济学家研究：K. Kiel et al., “Luck or Skill? An Examination of the Ehrlich-Simon Bet,” Ecological Economics 69, no. 7 (2010): 1365—67.
223 泰洛克决定研究专家的预测：泰洛克在自己的著作中铺陈了详细而妙趣的细节——《专家的政治判断：它有多好？我们怎么知道呢？》Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2005).
223 “一种奇特的反向关系”：Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment.
229 超级预测者们的在线互动：P. E. Tetlock et al., “Bringing Probability Judgments into Policy Debates via Forecasting Tournaments,” Science 355 (2017): 481—83.
230 美元兑欧元的汇率预测：G. Gigerenzer, Risk Savvy (New York: Penguin, 2014).
230—231 “积极的开放心态”；“我的”看法：J. Baron et al., “Reflective Thought and Actively Open-Minded Thinking,” in Individual Differences in Judgment and Decision Making, ed. M. E. Toplak and J. A. Weller (New York: Routledge, 2017 ［Kindle ebook］).
231 即使报酬非常诱人：J. A. Frimer et al., “Liberals and Conservatives Are Similarly Motivated to Avoid Exposure to One Another’s Opinions,” Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 72 (2017): 1—12.
231 关于英国脱欧投票准备期的研究：Online Privacy Foundation, “Irrational Thinking and the EU Referendum Result” (2016).
231 修护霜……控枪：D. Kahan et al., “Motivated Numeracy and Enlightened Self-Government,” Behavioural Public Policy 1, no. 1 (2017): 54—86.
231 不是单纯的求知欲，而是对科学的好奇心：D. M. Kahan et al., “Science Curiosity and Political Information Processing,” Advances in Political Psychology 38, no. 51 (2017): 179—99.
232 “只有深度是不够的”：Baron et al., “Reflective Thought and Actively Open-Minded Thinking.”
232 前四个人类进化论模型：H. E. Gruber, Darwin on Man: A Psychological Study of Scientific Creativity, 127.
232 “千万不能接受莱尔提出的这些观点”：The Autobiography of Charles Darwin.
233 “这是科学史上最有意义的交流之一”：J. Browne, Charles Darwin: A Biography, vol. 1, Voyaging (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1995), 186.
233 爱因斯坦就属于刺猬型：有关爱因斯坦偏刺猬型的参考文献之一，请参见：Morson and Schapiro, Cents and Sensibility.
233 “人们似乎达成了共识”：G. Mackie, “Einstein’s Folly,” The Conversation, November 29, 2015.
233 尼尔斯·玻尔……他说：C. P. Snow, The Physicists, (London: Little, Brown and Co., 1981). 爱因斯坦也表达了对应观点，可参见：H. Dukas and B. Hoffmann eds., Albert Einstein, The Human Side: Glimpses from His Archives (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1979), 68.
234 在连续四年的预测竞赛中：W. Chang et al., “Developing Expert Political Judgment: The Impact of Training and Practice on Judgmental Accuracy in Geopolitical Forecasting Tournaments,” Judgment and Decision Making 11, no. 5 (2016): 509—26.
第11章239 那是秋日的一天，中午刚过：2016年10月，马克斯·巴泽曼（Max Bazerman）教授热情地允许我在哈佛商学院观察卡特赛车队的案例研讨课，为期两天。［该案例研究由杰克·W. 布里坦（Jack W.Brittain）和西姆·B. 西特金（Sim B.Sitkin）于1986年创建。］
246 “所有参与者”：F. Lighthall, “Launching the Space Shuttle Challenger: Disciplinary Deficiencies in the Analysis of Engineering Data,” IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management 38, no. 1 (1991): 63—74. Boisjoly’s “away from goodness” 引自1986年2月25日总统委员会听证会议的文字记录。
249 罗杰·博伊斯乔利亲自去检查：R. P. Boisjoly et al. “Roger Boisjoly and the Challenger Disaster,” Journal of Business Ethics 8, no. 4 (1989): 217—230. 博伊斯乔利的 “away from goodness” 引自1986年2月25日总统委员会听证会议的文字记录。
250 航天飞机是人类所完成的最精密复杂的机器：J. M. Logsdon, “Was the Space Shuttle a Mistake?,” MIT Technology Review, July 6, 2011.
250 麦克唐纳和另外两位莫顿聚硫橡胶公司的副总裁：总统委员会听证会议的文字记录提供了本章中的信息和引文，读者可在网站https://history.nasa.gov/rogersrep/genindex.htm.上查阅。阿伦·麦克唐纳还针对调查和航天飞机中重返飞行的过程进行了大量精彩描述，参见他的著作《真相、谎言和O型圈》Truth, Lies, and O-Rings (Gainesville: University Press of Florida, 2009)。
250 “他们说，因为他们曾在53华氏度的气温下发射过”：摘自黛安·沃恩（Diane Vaughan）的著作，书中包括对决策过程中“越轨行为正常化”的精彩探索： The Challenger Launch Decision: Risky Technology, Culture, and Deviance at NASA (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1996).
251 “我们信仰上帝，其他的就拿数据说话”：对现任和前任NASA管理人员和工程师的一些背景采访——特别是于2007年访问NASA约翰逊航天中心的记录——提供了非常有用的信息。NASA工程领导力学院的门户网站是资源丰富的信息库。它能链接到NASA庞大的“经验教训系统”。
251 卡尔·维克……发现了……一些不同寻常的现象：K. E. Weick, “The Collapse of Sensemaking in Organizations: The Mann Gulch Disaster,” Administrative Science Quarterly 38, no. 4 (1993): 628—52.; K. E. Weick, “Drop Your Tools: An Allegory for Organizational Studies,” Administrative Science Quarterly 41, no. 2 (1996): 301—13; K. E. Weick, “Drop Your Tools: On Reconfiguring Management Education,” Journal of Management Education 31, no. 1 (2007): 5—16.
252 每秒11英尺：R. C. Rothermel, “Mann Gulch Fire: A Race That Couldn’t Be Won,” Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Intermountain Research Station, General Technical Report INT-299, May 1993.
252 野外消防员始终无法逃脱大火的魔爪：K. E. Weick, “Tool Retention and Fatalities in Wildland Fire Settings,” in Linking Expertise and Naturalistic Decision Making, ed. E. Salas and G. A. Klein (New York: Psychology Press, 2001 ［Kindle ebook］).
252 “起飞时的直升机”：USDA, USDI, and USDC, South Canyon Fire Investigation (Report of the South Canyon Fire Accident Investigation Team), U.S. Government Printing Office, Region 8, Report 573-183, 1994.
252 “还背着背包”；“这时我才发现自己肩上还背着锯”；23名野外消防精英……同归于尽：Weick, “Tool Retention and Fatalities in Wildland Fire Settings.”
253 他又在空中抓住了杆子；“放弃工具就代表着故意遗忘”；“坚守自己最熟悉的领域”；“生存危机”：Weick, “Drop Your Tools: An Allegory for Organizational Studies.”
254 “常见的应对”：J. Orasanu and L. Martin, “Errors in Aviation Decision Making,” Proceedings of the HESSD’98 (Workshop on Human Error, Safety and System Development) (1998): 100—107; J. Orasanu et al., “Errors in Aviation Decision Making,” Fourth Conference on Naturalistic Decision Making, 1998.
255 “如果我做出决策”：Weick, “Tool Retention and Fatalities in Wildland Fire Settings.”
256 “这句话字里行间就在提示”：M. Kohut, “Interview with Bryan O’Connor,” NASA’s ASK (Academy Sharing Knowledge) magazine, issue 45 (January 2012).
256 “你必须要保持理性”：引自1986年2月25日总统委员会听证会议的文字记录。
260 “救援肯定会很困难”：第48救援中队的几名成员提供了宝贵的背景和佐证。
261 “活在现实世界”：C. Grupen, Introduction to Radiation Protection (Berlin: Springer, 2010), 90. 沙弗农的全部原始语料可在 https://yarchive.net/air/perfect_safety.html 上查阅。
262 首次针对行业内各类机构的研究：K. S. Cameron and S. J. Freeman, “Cultural Congruence, Strength, and Type: Relationships to Effectiveness,” Research in Organizational Change and Development 5 (1991): 23—58.
262 最有效率的领导者和组织都具备广度：K. S. Cameron and R. E. Quinn, Diagnosing and Changing Organizational Culture, 3rd Edition (San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 2011).
262 在一项实验中：S. V. Patil et al., “Accountability Systems and Group Norms: Balancing the Risks of Mindless Conformity and Reckless Deviation,” Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 30 (2017): 282—303.
264 吉恩·克兰兹：G. Kranz, Failure Is Not an Option (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2000). See also: M. Dunn, “Remaking NASA one step at a time,” Associated Press, October 12, 2003.
265 “周一笔记”；威廉·卢卡斯……“常常一看到问题就发怒”：S. J. Dick, ed., NASA’s First 50 Years (Washington, DC: NASA, 2011 ［ebook］). 同时，冯·布劳恩的笔记可在 https://history.msfc.nasa.gov/vonbraun/vb_weekly_notes.html 上查阅。
266 “笔记的质量立刻下降了”：R. Launius, “Comments on a Very Effective Communications System: Marshall Space Flight Center’s Monday Notes,” Roger Launius’s Blog, February 28, 2011.
266 “恰当的渠道”；“是严格的，也是抑制性的”：Columbia Accident Investigation Board, “History as Cause: Columbia and Challenger,” in Columbia Accident Investigation Board Report, vol. 1, August 2003.
267 引力探测器B：斯坦福大学在网站einstein in.stanford.edu上维护了一个档案馆，里面有大量关于引力探测器B的信息（包括技术信息和为公众编写的信息）。为了进行科学的深度潜水，《经典和量子引力》杂志Classical and Quantum Gravity (vol. 32, no. 22 ［November 2015］)专门出版了一期关于引力探测器B的内容。
267 这项技术经过二十年的研发：T. Reichhardt, “Unstoppable Force,” Nature 426 (2003): 380—81.
268 “非常自信，认为发射能够成功”：NASA Case Study, “The Gravity Probe B Launch Decisions,” NASA, Academy of Program/Project and Engineering Leadership.
269 “我们的系统没有健康的张力”：格韦登也在如下文献中讨论健康张力问题：R. Wright et al., eds., NASA at 50: Interviews with NASA’s Senior Leadership (Washington, DC: NASA, 2012).
270 第一个证明该理论的直接实验：J. Overduin, “The Experimental Verdict on Spacetime from Gravity Probe B,” in Vesselin Petkov, ed., Space, Time, and Spacetime (Berlin: Springer, 2010).
271 喜马拉雅山登山队伍：E.M. Anicich et al., “Hierarchical Cultural Values Predict Success and Mortality in High-Stakes Teams,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 112, no. 5 (2015): 1338—43.
272 “目视狭窄反射”：埃里克·托波尔（Eric Topol）是创造这个词的心脏病专家。（但对于真正心脏病发作的患者，支架可以挽救生命。）
272 每五十名被植入支架的患者中就有一名：K. Stergiopoulos and D. L. Brown, “Initial Coronary Stent Implantation With Medical Therapy vs Medical Therapy Alone for Stable Coronary Artery Disease: Meta-analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials,” Archives of Internal Medicine 172, no. 4 (2012): 312—19.
272 无法相信支架会不起作用：G. A. Lin et al., “Cardiologists’ Use of Percutaneous Coronary Interventions for Stable Coronary Artery Disease,” Archives of Internal Medicine 167, no. 15 (2007): 1604—09.
273 死亡的可能性就会降低：A. B. Jena et al., “Mortality and Treatment Patterns among Patients Hospitalized with Acute Cardiovascular Conditions during Dates of National Cardiology Meetings,” JAMA Internal Medicine 175, no. 2 (2015): 237– 44. See also: A. B. Jena et al., “Acute Myocardial Infarction during Dates of National Interventional Cardiology Meetings,” Journal of the American Heart Association 7, no. 6 (2018): e008230.
273 “在大型的心脏病学会议上”：R. F. Redberg, “Cardiac Patient Outcomes during National Cardiology Meetings,” JAMA Internal Medicine 175, no. 2 (2015): 245.
273 比较了“真假手术”：R. Sihvonen et al., “Arthroscopic Partial Meniscectomy Versus Sham Surgery for a Degenerative Meniscal Tear,” New England Journal of Medicine 369 (2013): 2515—24. 可以在以下文献中找到指向其他几项研究的超链接，其中包含支持的研究结果：D. Epstein, “When Evidence Says No, But Doctors Say Yes,” ProPublica, February 22, 2017.
第12章278 “很有前途！”：史密斯在他公开的诺贝尔奖演讲“翻页”（2007年12月7日）中讨论了他的一些工作和笔记本文件。北卡罗来纳大学维护着在线档案馆，里面有六十多年来史密斯笔记的数字化版本，以及史密斯本人浏览这些笔记本并提供评论的录音。（史密斯告诉我，即使在周六，人们也应该随身携带笔记本。）这个档案是一个很好的采访准备资源，可以在网站smithies.lib.unc.edu/notebook上获得。
279 2016年，一项针对一万名研究人员的职业生涯调查：A. Clauset et al., “Data-Driven Predictions in the Science of Science,” Science 355 (2017): 477—80.
280 其他科学家已经测试了240 000种化合物：P. McKenna, “Nobel Prize Goes to Modest Woman Who Beat Malaria for China,” New Scientist, November 9, 2011, online ed.
280 公元4世纪的一位中国炼金士：炼金士和草药医生葛洪在东晋时期写了一本《肘后救卒方》。屠呦呦在她的诺贝尔演讲中给出了背景：“青蒿素——中医药给世界的礼物”（2015年12月7日）。她在分享了一张16世纪该书手抄本的照片，参见：Y. Tu, “The Discovery of Artemisinin (Qinghaosu) and Gifts from Chinese Medicine,” Nature Medicine 17, no. 10 (2011): 1217—20.
280 一项关于非洲疟疾发病率下降的研究：Bhatt et al., “The Effect of Malaria Control on Plasmodium falciparum in Africa Between 2000 and 2015,” Nature 526 (2015): 207—11.
280 贴上了一个标签：“完全不能用了，但是奥利弗能用。”：G. Watts, “Obituary: Oliver Smithies,” Lancet 389 (2017): 1004.
281 用胶带粘下一层层薄薄的石墨：盖姆在题为《漫话石墨烯》“Random Walk to Graphene” (December 8, 2010)的诺贝尔演讲中详细介绍了这一发现。给出了各生动形象的部分标题：“僵尸管理”“宁可犯错也不无聊”和“苏格兰磁带的传奇”。
281 硬度却是钢铁的两百倍：C. Lee et al., “Measurement of the Elastic Properties and Intrinsic Strength of Monolayer Graphene,” Science 321 (2008): 385—8.
281 用石墨烯喂养的蜘蛛：E. Lepore et al., “Spider Silk Reinforced by Graphene or Carbon Nanotubes,” 2D Materials 4, no. 3 (2017): 031013.
281 “足够的科学进步”：J. Colapinto, “Material Question,” The New Yorker, December 2014, online ed.
281—282 “刻意的初学者”；“创新与精通的矛盾”：萨拉·刘易斯有关创造力的精彩著作为：The Rise: Creativity, the Gift of Failure, and the Search for Mastery (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2014).
282 “我的研究风格与众不同”：“U. Manchester’s Andre Geim: Sticking with Graphene—For Now,” ScienceWatch newsletter interview, August 2008.
282 “从来不屑于问的问题”：Lewis, The Rise.
282 “有限马虎原则”：Max Delbrück interviews with Carolyn Harding in 1978, California Institute of Technology Oral History Project, 1979.
282 “似乎浪费着生命”；“这里的灵活性”：E. Pain, “Sharing a Nobel Prize at 36,” Science, online ed. career profiles, February 25, 2011.
284 “如果这种情况持续下去”：A. Casadevall, “Crisis in Biomedical Sciences: Time for Reform?,” Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Dean’s Lecture Series, February 21, 2017, www.youtube.com/watch?v=05Sk-3u90Jo. See also: F. C. Fang et al., “Misconduct Accounts for the Majority of Retracted Scientific Publications,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA 109, no. 42 (2012): 17028—33.
284 极易被撤稿：“Why High-Profile Journals Have More Retractions, “Nature, online ed., September 17, 2014.
285 如果某种疾病的患病率是1‰：A. K. Manrai et al., “Medicine’s Uncomfortable Relationship with Math,” JAMA Internal Medicine 174, no. 6 (2014): 991—93.
286 “行业协会出现在中世纪的欧洲”；有一种会议越来越多了：A. Casadevall and F. C. Fang, “Specialized Science,” Infection and Immunity 82, no. 4 (2014): 1355—60.
287 生物医学类的研究资金呈指数级增长：A. Bowen and A. Casadevall, “Increasing Disparities Between Resource Inputs and Outcome, as Measured by Certain Health Deliverables, in Biomedical Research,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA 112, no. 36 (2015): 11335—40.
287 而最近，人均预期寿命却缩短了：J. Y. Ho and A. S. Hendi, “Recent Trends in Life Expectancy Across High Income Countries,” BMJ (2018), 362:k2562.
287 有人研究了……的联结和……关联：R. Guimerà et al., “Team Assembly Mechanisms Determine Collaboration Network Structure and Team Performance,” Science 308 (2005): 697—702.
288 “整个工作网络完全不同”：“Dream Teams Thrive on Mix of Old and New Blood,” Northwestern Now, May 3, 2005.
288 百老汇在任何一个时代的商业命运：B. Uzzi and J. Spiro, “Collaboration and Creativity,” American Journal of Sociology 111, no. 2 (2005): 447—504.
288 “观点的进出口”：“Teaming Up to Drive Scientific Discovery,” Brian Uzzi at TEDxNorthwesternU, June 2012.
289 科学家们的“套利”机会：C. Franzoni et al., “The Mover’s Advantage: The Superior Performance of Migrant Scientists,” Economic Letters 122, no. 1 (2014): 89—93; see also: A. M. Petersen, “Multiscale Impact of Researcher Mobility,” Journal of the Royal Society Interface 15, no. 146 (2018): 20180580.
289 乌奇和团队分析了：B. Uzzi et al., “Atypical Combinations and Scientific Impact,” Science 342 (2013): 468—72.
289 这篇论文就被称为“新颖论文”：J. Wang et al., “Bias Against Novelty in Science,” Research Policy 46, no. 8 (2017): 1416—36.
289 在不同知识之间架起桥梁的论文：K. J. Boudreau et al., “Looking Across and Looking Beyond the Knowledge Frontier: Intellectual Distance, Novelty, and Resource Allocation in Science,” Management Science 62, no. 10 (2016): 2765—83.
290 真菌靠辐射给自己提供营养：E. Dadachova et al., “Ionizing Radiation Changes the Electronic Properties of Melanin and Enhances the Growth of Melanized Fungi,” PLoS ONE 2, no. 5 (2007): e457.
292 旁听一场……资助政策听证会：例如 D. Epstein, “Senatorial Peer Review,” Inside Higher Ed, May 3, 2006; and: D. Epstein, “Science Bill Advances,” Inside Higher Ed, May 19, 2006.有趣的是，在这些听证会上，新罕布夏州参议员（兼工程学博士）约翰·苏努努（John Sununu）通常是一位尖锐的预算鹰派人士，他正好站在和凯·贝利·哈钦森的对立面，主张为研究提供资金，但没有明确的申请。“如果你能确定经济效益，那就没必要资助它，”他说，“这就是我们成立风险投资社区的原因。”
293 一种奇怪的现象：Clauset et al., “Data-Driven Predictions in the Science of Science.”
294 “这些球员很少做有组织的训练”：M. Hornig et al., “Practice and Play in the Development of German Top-Level Professional Football Players,” European Journal of Sport Science 16, no. 1 (2016): 96—105.
294 “涉猎的时间”：J. Gifford, 100 Great Business Leaders (Singapore: Marshall Cavendish Business, 2013).
结语 拓展你的广度学习295 杰出的创造者发明的东西越多：关于这项研究（包括爱迪生的专利）的出色讨论，请参见：chapter 10 of S. B. Kaufman and C. Gregoire, Wired to Create (New York: Perigee, 2015). 根据“人气”分数对莎士比亚戏剧的一个有趣的分析：D. K. Simonton, “Popularity, Content, and Context in 37 Shakespeare Plays,” Poetics 15 (1986): 493—510.
296 蕾切尔·怀特里德也取得了类似的成就：W. Osgerby, “Young British Artists,” in ART: The Whole Story, ed. S. Farthing (London: Thames & Hudson, 2010).
296 “棒球是一种缩水版的结果分布”：M. Simmons, “Forget the 10, 000-Hour Rule,” Medium, October 26, 2017.
297 他二十二岁才开始上正式的钢琴课：W. Moskalew et al., Svetik: A Family Memoir of Sviatoslav Richter (London: Toccata Press, 2015).
297 直到十三岁才第一次摸到篮球：“My Amazing Journey—Steve Nash,” NBA.com, 2007—08 Season Preview.
297 尤利乌斯·恺撒 ：C. Pelling, Plutarch and History (Swansea: Classical Press of Wales, 2002).
298 “这是一次实验”：Abrams v. United States, 250 U.S. 616 (1919) (Holmes dissenting opinion).